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Prediction for CME (2024-07-28T14:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-28T14:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32282/-1
CME Note: CME visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and directly south in STEREO A COR2. The likely source is an M1.6 flare peaking at 2024-07-28T14:22Z from AR 3768 with associated eruption seen as dimming and post-eruptive arcades in SDO 171/193/335 and GOES SUVI 284, centered around S15W30. Arrival signature is characterized by an increase in magnetic field components from 9nT to approx. 16nT, preceded by a smaller increase from 6nT to 9nT starting at 2024-07-31T10:40Z and accompanied by a sharp increase in solar wind speed from approx. 400 km/s to over 470 km/s, as well as sharp increase in solar wind density to over 10p/cc. This is possibly a combined arrival of this CME and multiple other Earth-directed CMEs.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-31T13:46Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-31T03:49Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-28 19:02
 - Time at C2: 2024-07-28 14:36
 - Radial speed: 777.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 35 deg
 - Eruption location: S25W22
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 639.10 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-07-31 03:49 (i.e. predicted transit time: 61.22 hours)
Lead Time: 58.95 hour(s)
Difference: 9.95 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2024-07-29T02:49Z
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